AGP Executive Report

China Growth Watch: China’s July industrial output rose 4.5% y/y but retail sales slowed to 0.6%, while fixed-asset investment fell 6.7% in the first seven months—raising pressure for fresh support as weak domestic demand and extreme weather bite. South Africa Markets: Regulators plan to finalise rules for centrally clearing rand OTC derivatives, targeting implementation by 2028, with phased coverage starting with interest-rate swaps and forward-rate agreements. UK Rail Competition: The ORR pre-approved a framework track access deal enabling Virgin Trains to run up to 20 daily return services between London and major European cities from 2030, pending fleet, network access and safety approvals. India Consumer & Capital Markets: Honasa’s EBITDA jumped ~2.5x to ₹1.1bn and analysts lifted outlook; Dhoot Transmission’s IPO debut surged ~38% on EV-component demand; Baazar Style Retail shares hit the 5% upper circuit after a ₹163 crore block deal. Fintech & Payments: Kenya lenders are turning to AI and alternative data as “data becomes new collateral,” while PSQ Payments will power Dealer Cash’s mobile and agent-assisted auto collections. Energy & Trade: US LPG exports to India hit record levels as Middle East imports plunged, and Sonatrach began Jet A1 supply to Niger, potentially reshaping Sahel fuel competition.

Retail & Consumer Pressure: US retail sales fell 0.6% in July, with weakness led by nonstore retailers, auto parts and gasoline—signaling consumers are still strained even as inflation cools. Tokenized Commodities: Tokenized gold kept climbing, with Tether Gold (XAUT) driving a $237M jump and total tokenized gold gains topping $362M in a month. SME Banking: Lloyds Bank appointed Fiamma Morton to lead SME banking, backing £9.5B in new SME finance for 2026. Capital Markets: Saudi Arabia’s CMA named Mazen Al-Sudairi as chairman to push market deepening and investor growth under Vision 2030. Retail Security Tech: Coles and Woolworths tested facial recognition to curb retail crime. Auto Industry: BYD is launching a Japan-specific kei car to crack a market where imported brands have struggled. Water Infrastructure Failures: South Africa’s Nkangala municipalities are stuck in a costly tanker system as drought and aging infrastructure leave residents with unreliable supply.

Market Volatility Watch: India’s top firms lost big last week, with TCS the biggest laggard as Sensex and Nifty slipped and investors brace for more swings. Central Banking & Leverage: A new analysis warns central-bank backstops can fuel leverage by encouraging investors to take on more debt—until markets turn. Consumer Protection Crackdown: Oman’s CPA reports closures, fines, and vehicle recalls, including BMW recalls over a starter-motor defect. Local Business Resilience: California wildfire insurance is tightening, pushing firms toward mitigation and alternative risk financing. Energy Transition in Focus: Nepal’s power story has flipped from shortages to surplus management, shifting the challenge to selling and transmitting electricity. Labour Market Pressure: South Korea’s caregiver shortage is driving foreign-worker pathways, but experts warn pay and conditions must improve. Retail & Community: A Nottingham retail park approved plans to replace an abandoned gym with a new Metro Bank branch, while storm damage forced closure of a Malaysian night market. Geopolitics Hits Commerce: Russia struck Kyiv’s book market in overnight attacks, injuring civilians and disrupting local business.

Retail & Consumers: US retail sales fell 0.6% in July, the biggest drop in more than a year, as tax-refund spending faded and inflation worries deepened; the University of Michigan’s sentiment gauge slid about 8% in August. Markets & Tech: Nvidia remains the retail crowd’s top Magnificent 7 pick, with $27B in net purchases over the past year, while investors also tracked tokenized equity buzz around rNVDA on Arbitrum. Crypto & Regulation: XRP is hovering near its 52-week low around $1 amid broader sell-off and ongoing regulatory uncertainty. Business & Security: IBM says AI-driven cyberattacks jumped 56% year-on-year and cost firms an average $6.04M per breach. Regional Trade: Rwanda’s alcohol ban on Kenyan and Ugandan products is sparking an EAC standards dispute, with Uganda and Kenya arguing certifications were valid. Local Economy: Atlanta’s $6B Centennial Yards keeps adding tenants, with Shake Shack among the latest openings. Energy & Trade: Bangladesh boosted LNG supply to 810 mmcfd, while garment exports to the EU fell 16.43% in H1 2026.

Consumer Demand & Markets: U.S. consumer sentiment fell about 8% in August to 51.0 as inflation worries lingered after weak July retail sales, with markets dialing back expectations for a Fed rate hike. Retail & Pricing Pressure: Euro-area retail fuel prices jumped after Middle East conflict pushed up crude and diesel, showing how quickly pump costs can follow energy shocks. Semiconductors & Investor Flows: Korean “seohak ants” shifted from leveraged chip ETFs to individual tech names like Amazon and Alphabet, while Samsung and SK hynix small shareholders topped 11 million, reflecting renewed retail interest in a semiconductor rebound. Business Resilience & Local Economy: Michigan AG Dana Nessel reissued data-breach alerts as identity theft risks rise, urging consumers to take precautions. Infrastructure & Supply Chains: Delays from road works on Nigeria’s Asaba–Onitsha expressway are hitting businesses and haulage schedules, with motorists stuck in worsening conditions. Energy Transition Commodities: QNB expects copper prices to keep rising as demand grows and new supply lags. Urban Services: Salman Town plans a fully air-conditioned central market and supermarket to bring more daily essentials closer to residents.

Retail & Consumers: U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% in July and consumer confidence slid sharply in August, adding pressure to the Fed outlook and raising worries that households are pulling back as inflation expectations tick up. Markets: Wall Street indexes slipped on the data, with investors weighing whether weaker demand is a real slowdown or just summer noise. Tech & Imaging: DJI and Arashi Vision launched competing 360-degree cameras, intensifying the race in smart imaging. China Climate Policy: China will expand its national carbon market to cover petrochemicals and chemicals, bringing about 80% of emissions under trading rules. Small Business & Community: New Hampshire is reminding eligible small businesses and nonprofits in four counties to apply for low-interest federal disaster loans by Aug. 24. Local Business Support: In Ilocos Norte, 129 stall owners affected by a July fire at Batac Public Market received livelihood aid to restart operations. Food & Retail: Oishii is opening its first retail shop at Chelsea Market, bringing its premium Japanese strawberries to walk-in shoppers. Business Security Costs: Downtown Edmonton businesses say they’re paying out of pocket for security as public safety concerns persist.

Power Alerts: The Philippines’ grid operator (NGCP) issued fresh red and yellow power alerts for the Visayas and Mindanao after outages at major coal plants and limited imports, with capacity at 2,269MW versus peak demand of 2,511MW. Water Disruptions: Malaysia’s Sabah is dealing with a water supply disruption affecting 14 hotels, while Sarawak Water says repairs to a malfunctioning delivery valve in Sibu may keep about 15,000 consumers on low pressure or interruptions. Retail & Consumer Demand: Cosco Capital reported 9.2% higher first-half 2026 net income to ₱8.3bn, driven mainly by grocery retail (Puregold and S&R). Housing & Credit: Australia’s first-homebuyer numbers fell to a one-year low, and lending to property investors dropped sharply, signaling cooling demand as policy and rate pressures bite. Markets & Finance: Margin debt in the U.S. stock market is above $1.5tn, and South Korea’s money supply rose for an eighth straight month as inflationary pressure persists. Energy & Trade: Oil prices edged up on renewed Iran supply fears, while long-term shipping rates are rising as Middle East war disruptions spread into contract markets. AI & Business Tech: Apple is reportedly training a China-specific AI model with Alibaba support, and Abu Dhabi Exchange opened live market data access to AI platforms. Corporate Watch: Tata Sons’ chairman succession battle is heating up after N Chandrasekaran stepped aside, with internal contenders already being discussed.

Bangladesh Investment Push: Prime Minister Tarique Rahman urged US firms to invest in Bangladesh with confidence, promising simpler rules and a more predictable business climate, and pointing to opportunities across energy, tech, finance, agriculture and logistics. AI Supply Chain Reality Check: An IDC study found 88% of supply chain groups have deployed AI, but only 12% have governance in place, with trust and confidence in AI decisions the biggest blocker ahead of the EU AI Act deadline. Healthcare Reputation Economy: A survey says patients now treat doctor ratings like consumer products—most won’t book below 4.0 stars, and AI search tools are increasingly shaping choices. Consumer Fraud Warning: The FTC says imposter scams have drained more than $3B from consumers, with scammers increasingly using social media to impersonate police, businesses and agencies. Oil Demand Pressure: The IEA cut its 2026 oil supply and demand forecasts again, citing Strait of Hormuz disruption and weaker demand outlook. Local Business Support & Retail Safety: Penticton businesses are mobilizing help for wildfire-hit Summerland, while Baltimore sues prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket over alleged consumer protection violations.

Retail & Consumer Sentiment: PwC research says nearly 70% of customers will switch after one bad experience, putting customer support and cleanliness at the top of what drives loyalty. Oil & Energy Markets: Oil prices slipped as OPEC and the IEA cut 2026 demand forecasts, with US crude inventories jumping—though supply risks tied to the Strait of Hormuz kept a floor under prices. Credit & Payments: Banks in Australia are trimming credit card rewards and sign-up offers, with analysts warning businesses may pass costs to consumers and trigger mass card switching. Retail Growth in Asia: Walmart China reported strong momentum, while Indonesia’s Ramadan FMCG spending rose 3.3% and online retail surged. Business Performance Watch: SM Investments posted record first-half net income of P45.9bn, citing resilient consumer spending across retail and malls. Market Integrity: Turkish funds are urging tougher action over unusual trading that could threaten Borsa Istanbul’s benchmark status. Tech for Business: Wuxi launched a city “Token Supermarket” to help local firms buy AI model access more easily. E-commerce IPO: India’s Shiprocket IPO opened with heavy retail demand and a premium in the grey market.

US Inflation Watch: US CPI rose just 0.1% in July and core inflation stayed tame, easing pressure on the Fed—though rate cuts still look unlikely fast enough to help housing. Housing & Mortgages: Even after the CPI print, mortgage rates slipped briefly, but first-time buyers remain priced out as home sales stay sluggish. India Inflation: India’s retail inflation hit a 19-month high of 4.45% in July, driven by food costs, with uneven monsoon conditions still a risk. Food Safety: Whole Foods recalled select jalapeño-containing dips, salsa, guacamole and prepared foods over possible Salmonella contamination. Markets & Money: Stocks climbed on the mild inflation data and a hot AI rally, while the dollar edged down versus the rupee in Pakistan’s interbank market. Business Results: Qatar’s Estithmar Holding reported stronger H1 2026 profits and revenue, while Canada’s Birchcliff Energy posted solid Q2 results and raised gas marketing via the Malin hub. Energy Reliability: Philippines grid operators issued a Visayas red alert as outages and limited imports tighten supply. Local Economy: Halifax Fashion Week gets business backing as arts funding cuts bite. Regulation & Work: UK plans to ban zero-hours contracts could cost businesses billions in added compliance.

Energy & Trade Disruptions: The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, keeping oil prices elevated and prompting the IEA to cut its global oil demand forecast for 2026, warning that even if traffic resumes, supply-chain stress could linger. Power Costs & Reliability: In the Philippines, Meralco’s August rate cut is small and won’t fully ease bills, while central and southern grids face red alerts as multiple plants stay offline or derated. Regulation & Compliance for Businesses: Malaysia’s customs uncertainty over tax treatment of commingled oil cargo at Johor’s Tanjung Langsat Port is raising costs and dispute risk for shipping operators. Retail & Consumer Markets: Ayala expands international retail via ACX Retail; India’s V-Mart hits its 600th store milestone; and B&M trials a “store of the future” concept in Wigan. Corporate Moves: Godrej Consumer Products appoints Aasif Malbari as CEO after Sudhir Sitapati’s sudden exit, sending shares sharply lower. Policy & Markets: SEBI is considering ways to deepen India’s commodity derivatives market by bringing in FPIs and mutual funds.

Organized Retail Crime Crackdown: Ohio’s AG says a statewide sting led to charges against 46 people tied to theft rings that cost businesses billions, with cases aimed at dismantling fencing networks. Small-Business Cybersecurity: Senators Todd Young and Adam Schiff unveiled a bill to map and improve federal cybersecurity help for small firms as phishing and attacks keep rising. Online Retail Under Pressure: Australia’s small business ombudsman warns algorithms are shutting down shop accounts without meaningful human oversight, turning platform disputes into a major complaint driver. Retail Expansion in the Philippines: Ayala is rolling out ACX Retail to bring more international brands locally, including Musinsa Standard via a distribution partnership. Energy & Costs Watch: The EIA projects U.S. natural gas supply and demand hitting record highs in 2026, while Dominion’s fuel costs in Virginia are climbing fast as data centers drive power demand. Housing Signals: Maine’s listings are up and prices have eased, with Realtors calling it a “great time to purchase.” Markets & Tech: CME plans index-based NHL hockey futures, and Nasdaq is buying LeveL Markets to expand off-exchange trading.

Retail Momentum: US retail sales rose for the 10th straight month in July, up 0.32% month-on-month and 5.15% year-on-year, as shoppers kept spending on midsummer deals and early back-to-school promos. Consumer Protection & Trust: Qatar is moving to rein in misleading digital marketing, while India’s consumer rules on UPI keep person-to-person transfers free—though debate continues over whether merchant charges could quietly lift prices. Supply-Chain Risk: Tariffs and China-linked manufacturing dependencies are raising fears of shortages in lithium batteries, key medicines and filtration gear, with experts urging 60–90 day stockpiles and backup power planning. Energy & Infrastructure: Gas turbine orders hit record highs as AI-driven power demand accelerates, and Malaysia launched an energy efficiency plan aimed at major utility savings. Markets Watch: India’s equities stay cautious on inflation, oil and monsoon signals, while Nigeria’s consumer credit shrank as high rates tightened lending. Business Growth: Alo is set to debut on Tmall, and Bellway reported stronger housing completions and cash generation despite mixed demand.

Tax Relief Push: The Philippine House Ways and Means Committee approved bills to lift the personal income tax-free threshold to ₱350,000 (from ₱250,000) and exempt microenterprises from the 2% minimum corporate income tax, aiming to boost take-home pay while keeping funding for public services. Electricity Competition: In the Philippines’ retail choice push, Scottland Food Group (BonChon franchise) is switching 17 sites (~1.8MW demand) to EvoEnergi under the expanded retail competition and open access program, with the threshold cut to 100 kW. Food Regulation: The US FDA is set to tighten the GRAS pathway, requiring manufacturers to notify the agency before adding new ingredients and share safety documentation, as consumer groups warn the current system leaves gaps. Grid Costs: ISO New England is seeking federal approval to change a reliability market after costs surged to $921m versus a $140m projection, with Rhode Island ratepayers facing part of the hit. Market Watch: Nvidia shares slid after reports of a $500bn AI infrastructure financing push raising concentration-risk concerns. Small Business Aid: The US SBA opened low-interest drought disaster loans in North Carolina (up to $2m) for working capital, with a March 10, 2027 deadline.

Philippines Retail Push: Ayala’s ACX Holdings is setting up ACX Retail as an execution arm to scale international fashion, lifestyle and specialty brands nationwide, using Ayala’s real estate, logistics and consumer data to speed up store rollouts. Consumer Protection & Payments: India’s Finance Ministry says any future UPI Merchant Discount Rate would hit only a limited set of merchants, while P2P UPI stays free—aimed at easing fears of costs being passed to consumers. Regulatory Oversight: SEBI is streamlining inspections for market intermediaries by shifting to joint checks with stock exchanges and depositories and cutting regulator-led inspections to about one-third. Cost-of-Living Politics: UK PM Andy Burnham is accelerating rules on subscription cancellations and misleading discounts, with a consultation on deceptive discounting for the Competition and Markets Authority. Retail Tech Against Loss: London’s Edgify raised €7.7m to expand edge AI infrastructure for physical stores to cut shrink and improve operations. Jobs Pressure: New grads in the US face tougher entry-level hiring, while the UK shows “rays of light” as permanent hiring stabilises. Property & Logistics: Kolkata’s warehousing stock topped 24m sq ft in H1 2026, and the Balearics saw a cooling property market as home sales and transfer-tax receipts dipped.

Consumer Protection: The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas says it processed 120,000+ new consumer complaints in 2025, up 72.6%, as more people use digital channels and laws like the Financial Consumer Protection Act drive reporting. Business Red Tape: A Philippine government study finds nearly half of businesses still struggle with registration and closure despite the Ease of Doing Business push, citing uneven eBOSS rollout, weak system interoperability, and missing exit standards. Power Crunch: In the Philippines, Visayas grid alerts are worsening, with critics arguing the Department of Energy is still not delivering practical fixes fast enough. Retail & Local Economy: In Canada, about 20 businesses in Bowness are without water after a water main break; in Kirkland Lake, a library’s roof-fundraising Summer Market and Community Fair is set for Aug. 29. Markets & Money: Wall Street heads into a data-heavy week after a weak US jobs report, with CPI, retail sales, and housing in focus; Nigeria’s capital market capitalisation also topped N217tn as the SEC urges more infrastructure financing via bonds and REITs.